NRL Round 7
My Game Handicaps | Market (handicap and total points are market)
-3.5
-4.5 Cowboys v Eagles | 54.5
+0.5
+1.5 Raiders v Storm | 48.5
+12.5
+14.5 Dolphins v Panthers | 52.5 @ Darwin
-10.5
-11.5 Warriors v Titans | 49.5
-10.5
-12.5 Rabbits v Dragons | 52.5
-3.5
-6.5 Tigers v Broncos | 51.5
-12.5
-11.5 Roosters v Knights | 53.5
+14.5
+12.5 Eels v Bulldogs | 49.5
My Bets
3.5u Cowboys-Sea Eagles 2nd Half under 27.5 $1.91
2.5u Raiders-Storm under 48.5 $1.90
4.5u Roosters win x Bulldogs win $1.85 BB
5u Bulldogs -8.5 $1.90 BB
1u Any time try Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) $4.20
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Notes
3.5 Cowboys-Sea Eagles 2nd Half under 27.5 $1.91
While the game profiles for points GB’s data analysis highlights how both teams are faders into the 2nd half. The Eagles fade badly after the break (averaging just 12.4 2H points for in 2026), while the Cowboys sit among the lowest combined second-half totals in the comp with the 5th lowest.
2.5u Raiders-Storm under 48.5 $1.90
Under positions clearly carry risk at present, but this is the highlight play for the round, both off 6 day turn around, Raiders back from Perth, Storm struggling; ground night av is 41.5, H2H av is 38.5 and then we get Gough who runs at 80% under and can murder the game flow better than anyone in the comp.
4.5u Roosters win x Bulldogs win $1.85 BB
Looks the stand out two this week, Knights likely to have two further forward injury outs
5u Bulldogs -8.5 $1.90 BB
Eels are in a world of hurt with long list of injury outs and now 2 further ones likely this week; Titans put 50 on them and they are leaking 36 a week now; Bulldogs also big a strong D to shut things down. Line looks way way too short
1u Any time try Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) $4.20
Played his best of the season offering last week, plays direct and excellent hole runner, off the bench when opportunities should start to open up
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Staking notes at the base of this message thread
My Line Picks
Eagles plus
Raiders plus
Dolphins plus
Titans plus
Dragons plus
Broncos plus
Roosters minus
Bulldogs minus
Game Tips
Eagles by 4
Raiders by 6
Panthers by 14
Warriors by 8
Rabbits by 12
Tigers by 6
Roosters by 12
Bulldogs by 18
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
-3.5
-4.5 Cowboys v Eagles | 54.5
The Cowboys host a resurgent Sea Eagles outfit at Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Saturday night, and despite being installed as $1.59 favourites at home, history says this is a far more competitive assignment than the market suggests — Manly have won six of the last eight H2H meetings and arrive off the back of two strong away performances, including the stunning 52-18 demolition of the Dolphins in Round 5 and a composed defensive effort against the Dragons last week. The Cowboys have been much improved through recent outings — wins over the Storm and Broncos showing some genuine improvement — but Tom Trbojevic and Manly's outside backs carry a genuine match-winning threat that can test the Cowboys' edge defence.
Looks like a game with potential points, but the Eagles have generally played tighter, lower-scoring games when away, the Cowboys also seem to draw attack out of most matchups. Sutton makes this an interesting contest as he can at times seem to lean toward an away underdog.
While the game profiles for points GB’s data analysis highlights how both teams are faders into the 2nd half. The Eagles fade badly after the break (averaging just 12.4 2H points for in 2026), while the Cowboys sit among the lowest combined second-half totals in the comp with the 5th lowest.
+0.5
+1.5 Raiders v Storm | 48.5
The Raiders host a Melbourne Storm side in genuine crisis at GIO Stadium on Friday night, with the visitors arriving off four consecutive losses — including a 40-point hiding at the hands of the Panthers and a 24-point defeat to the Warriors — and carrying attack and defence metrics that are declining across every measurable category. Both sides are on six-day turnarounds, levelling that playing field, but it's the H2H record that provides the most compelling narrative — despite the Raiders sitting 1-4 and winless at home this season, they have won five of the last eleven meetings and hold a 4-0 record in H2H matches at GIO Stadium over the last ten visits, with every game in this fixture consistently going under 40 points regardless of the season context.
The Raiders' attack metrics are modestly improving while the Storm's are declining across the board. Peter Gough has an 80% under rate in 2026, and the venue night average of 41.4 points makes the 48.5 total line look significantly inflated. Storm may still win — they hold a 7-4 H2H advantage, and their general away win rate of 65.8% is formidable — but this is not the comfortable away assignment the $1.71 market price implies, and the Raiders at $2.14 represent genuine value for a side whose underlying metrics say they are better than their record suggests.
Points under positions clearly carry risk at present, but this is the highlight under play for the round, both off 6 day turn around, Raiders back from Perth, Storm struggling; ground night av is 41.5, H2H av is 38.5 and then we get Gough who runs at 80% under and can murder the game flow better than anyone in the comp, the under is where I want to be.
+12.5
+14.5 Dolphins v Panthers | 52.5 @ Darwin
The Panthers travel to TIO Stadium in Darwin for a rare northern territory fixture, and the hot, humid conditions add a genuine wildcard to what is already an interesting matchup — high heat and humidity at night can level the playing field in ways that no statistical model fully captures, sapping fitness and rewarding teams with physical conditioning and bench depth. The Dolphins arrive off a desperately disappointing 52-18 home loss to the Sea Eagles that exposed real defensive vulnerabilities down the edges, and while the extended 15-day rest off the bye gives them every opportunity to reset and respond, they'll need to show something significantly different to trouble a Panthers side that has been the competition's dominant force all season. Penrith come in without Martin and McLean — two influential contributors whose absences reduce their attacking fluency and defensive edge coverage — and the H2H data consistently shows these games are decided by 10 points or fewer, with Panthers rarely blowing the Dolphins out despite the quality gap.
I have now idea how to read or work through with the Dolphins for the time being, and given the Darwin location was happy to just pass this.
-10.5
-11.5 Warriors v Titans | 49.5
The Warriors host the Titans at Go Media Stadium in Auckland on Saturday afternoon, and the possibility of wet weather adds a further complicating issue to what the data already identifies as a genuinely dangerous game for the home side — despite being installed as strong favourites at –11.5, the Warriors' cover rate when favourited at –10.0 or greater is a striking at just 38%.
The Titans have a great match-up here, having won six of the last eight H2H meetings and have won the last two at the ground when pronounced underdogs. Wet conditions here have historically suppressed scoring and reduced the effectiveness of structured attacking sets — which would suit the physical, direct style of both but could limit some of the Titans' ball shift and attacking flair.
The Warriors got the monkey off their back in Melbourne last week (first win in 17 HDH clashes) with a very physical offering. It's interesting to watch how they come up off that big mental and physical lift. The Titans will be buoyed as well off a near record-breaking 52-10 thumping of the Eels. Not sure if this is a 12-point line gap between them, but happy to watch and learn. With the Warriors to do enough to win.
If the weather were to clear and we saw reasonably dry conditions, I would be keen to be with the points over.
-10.5
-12.5 Rabbits v Dragons | 52.5
The Rabbitohs return from Perth with a loss against the Raiders, and while they arrive back here as heavy favourites, I’m not convinced of the quality of their form at present and the roller coaster of in game inconsistency. They will now also have notable injury outs of David Fifita and Jye Gray — and they have lost their last 6 when without Gray.
The Dragons remain winless and 0-6 to start the season, and I am sure just a few weeks away from showing their coach the exit door, averaging just 14.4 points in their last five games and scoring a remarkable 0.6 second-half tries per game — a collapse so structural it defines their attitude and season. Their one hope here, should they have any sort of crack, is their consistent record when with this line position, a line covering record of 68% when given +10.0 or more start over their last 19 games.
Referee Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski adds a further twist — his 2026 current-season data shows consistently high-scoring games, which directly challenge the venue's historical under tendency, but is obviously in sync with the blowout nature of NRL manipulated touch footy ball in 2026.
The Rabbitohs should win comfortably, and Walker, Mitchell and Wighton have the class to get the job done without Fifita and Gray, but the –13.5 line makes it interesting. I harbour concerns that the majority of the Dragons playing group are now off the bus, and so even with such a good line cover record at this position and against a weakened opponent, they’ll concede too many through the second half.
With the Rabbitohs to have enough strike and game management to win, but zero confidence on any angle here to want to get involved. The key watch will be what the Dragons bring.
-3.5
-6.5 Tigers v Broncos | 51.5
Campbelltown Sports Stadium hosts what shapes as one of the most compelling home banker opportunities of the round, with the Tigers arriving off four wins from five to open their season in what is genuinely their best start in years — attack rank first in the competition, defence rank second, and now the addition of Jarome Luai at halfback transforming an already elite attacking unit into something even more threatening. The Broncos arrive in disarray, missing a range of key personnel, including Walsh and Carrigan — which compounds an already worsening trend of rising missed tackles, metres conceded climbing sharply.
The Tigers game strengths to date have been excellent, the key question is some of the form depth, but this now all presents and excellent challenge. Reynolds back will help the Broncos but they were opened up way too softly last week when conceding 35.
I think the 6.5 between them is too wide, and an inspired ex Tigers coach returning here in Maguire should lead to a motivated Broncos offering. But there is a lot to like about how the Tigers have been working hard, attitude is focused, defensive resolve sound and a preparedness to do something creative at times with the ball. Excellent test, but like the home team.
-12.5
-11.5 Roosters v Knights | 53.5
The Roosters return home to Allianz Stadium after the Perth road trip to face a Knights side that has been one of the quiet achievers of the early season, and while the travel back from the west coast adds a layer of potential fatigue to a Roosters squad that has been inconsistent in 2026, history firmly favours the home side in this fixture.
The Roosters have won seven of the last nine meetings and covered the line at the same rate, a record that speaks to a structural advantage the Knights have simply been unable to overcome, regardless of the season context. The Knights have Dylan Brown returning which is a key positive in, but the loss of Tyson Frizell and Dylan Lucas strips them in the middle and impacts their forward depth and physicality from a pack whose PCM differential is already declining sharply — two outs that will be felt particularly hard against a Roosters forward unit that has been improving its run metres and post-contact metres across recent weeks.
The data supports a low-scoring, competitive contest — combined L5 averages sit well under the 52.5 total line, the H2H average of 35 points is one of the lowest of any fixture in the competition, and Ashley Klein's 2026 over/under split is perfectly neutral.
Knights were poor last week in defeat to the Tigers and now face another difficult away leg against an opponent who have a strong forward and physical presence. Roosters look well placed, some question off a long flight road trip return, but they should be winning here. The line has moved significantly this week, happy to just play the Roosters to win in an all up leg.
+14.5
+12.5 Eels v Bulldogs | 49.5
What was once a derby fixture of genuine anticipation has become something of a crisis indicator for the Eels, who arrive at CommBank Stadium with a 2-6 record, a squad decimated by at least 13 injury outs with two further forward outs off last week, and a defence conceding 38 points per game that has become the most alarming statistic in the competition. Questionable on field list strength and now a thin bench offering.
The Bulldogs here off a very credible result last week — a composed, disciplined 32-16 victory over the Panthers off the back of some astute change up of game plan with the ball and a very committed attitude. The Bulldogs arrive with momentum, belief, and critically an all but full complement of players against a home side that is running out of fit bodies — and while the Eels' home ground advantage at CommBank carries some historical weight, the reality of their current roster situation makes it difficult to see where the resistance comes from, particularly in the second half when the Eels' limited bench has been repeatedly exposed all season.
As I noted early in the week, the Eels are in a world of hurt with this long list of injury outs and with the two backrower outs into this week, they look very tested. While the Titans were good, it was still a bottom four opponent on a distant away leg putting 50 through them. The Bulldogs strong D should also shut things down and strange the Eels limited attack options. The line opened imo way too short.
Odds Comparison
Aus Sports Betting Odds Comparison
Staking
Our likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to max 5 units (and this is also a reflection of confidence.
Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting). Some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting unit is likely to work for you and call this your betting unit, remembering that you may have approx. 5 to 10 units of recommended outlay per week per sport and that you also run the risk of losing.
Longer Term | Futures Plays
3u Titans most losses $4.00 (12th March)
4u Storm to miss Top 8 $3.70 (pre-season)
3u Titans Most Losses (Spoon) $5.00 (pre-season)
6.5u Titans Bottom 4 $1.91 (pre-season)
3u Titans winless after 6 rounds $6.50 (pre-season)
4.5u Roosters Top 4 $2.30 (pre-season)
4.5u Warriors Top 8 $2.30 (pre-season)
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